How the Champions League last 16 can become our reality

Group E permutations

Four matches in the UEFA Champions League group stage have been played, and we remain on course for the knockout stages. We are also still unbeaten with only two matches remaining! 

"We know that we are really strong at home  – so we have nothing to fear against a top team like Chelsea - and we have the chance to finish the group at the San Siro. We cannot wait for the last two matches," said goalscorer Nici Seiwald after the Dinamo match.

One thing is for sure - with two wins or a win and a draw in the two remaining matches, we would be sure of a place in the last 16, but how else could it pan out? We have got the calculators out and produced the following scenarios.

If history repeats itself


If we take two more draws against Chelsea and AC Milan (both matches were drawn 1-1), we would finish with eight points in the group. The Italians would have a chance to pull level with us should they beat Dinamo Zagreb – in which case the goal difference would be decisive, and at the moment we are four goals to the good in that regard.

Zagreb could only overtake us in this scenario if they get a total of four points against Chelsea and Milan. If we win one match and lose another, we would qualify ahead of them due to our better head-to-head record

Two draws would therefore leave us with every chance of staying in Europe next spring, even if we couldn't be certain of progression.

Worst-case scenario with reason to hope

If we don't take any further points, we could still finish in third place and make the UEFA Europa League knockout stages. The crucial thing in this scenario is that Dinamo get no more than two points against Chelsea and Milan.

A big win to take us further


With an away win at the San Siro, we will definitely play in Europe in the spring. AC Milan would definitely be behind us and only two wins in two from Dinamo could push us out of the top two in the group. If we win at home to Chelsea, we couldn't possibly finish fourth, but spots one to three would be open, depending on how we do in Milan and the result of Chelsea v Dinamo.

We would, of course, like to ensure we secure our own fate in front of our fans. We know the kind of boost a sold-out Red Bull Arena can give our boys, which is why we cannot wait for our clash with Chelsea on Tuesday 25 October at 18:45 CET!

If you want to come and support our Red Bulls in Milan on the final match day, all the information can be found here:

Away tickets vs. AC Milan